Four Frozen Pols in the Race for Senate

This morning, Congressman Stephen Lynch pulled nomination papers in advance of a possible run for U.S. Senate, joining Attorney General Martha Coakley, who formally announced her campaign yesterday.

But don’t let the move fool you, the former South Boston ironworker isn’t officially in the race. Lynch tells the Globe and The Patriot Ledger this morning that he was going to pull papers but will still noodle it over the weekend before making a decision – the usual friends and family gut check moment.

But Lynch really isn’t really fooling anyone. Like the three other current or former Congressmen mulling a race are waiting for a smoke signal from the Kennedy compound. It’s like Lynch, Congressmen Ed Markey, Mike Capuano and former Congressman Marty Meehan are standing alone in St. Peter’s Square looking to the lone chimney waiting to see if the burned ballots come out white or black.

Seems pretty silly on its face, right? These are four powerful political figures in their own right – Markey a ranking chairman, Meehan sitting on nearly $5 million, Lynch and Capuano old school street brawlers never afraid of a fight. Why wait for Joseph P. Kennedy II, a guy who has been out of politics for 11 years and who hasn’t said one public word to indicate that he wants to follow his uncle into the United States Senate?

The answer isn’t as obvious as the pundits will make you believe.
Yes, they are worried about losing to Kennedy. Yes, Joe (or Vicki) Kennedy would be able to better pull on the family heartstrings and metaphorically make this a short campaign about a return to Camelot, another passing of the torch and not letting the dream die. All that is very real and that alone could be enough to freeze the field.

But consider these other factors:

• Known, but unknown. Those who follow politics and public policy know who these congressmen are but this crowd of a few thousand – despite their best efforts – don’t decide elections. And many people of the Commonwealth have very little clue who Mike Capuano, Ed Markey, Steve Lynch and, yes, even Marty Meehan are. Outside their districts (and Meehan doesn’t even have one anymore) they are mostly unknowns. In that, Joe Kennedy has them trumped but, more importantly, Martha Coakley is a popular, statewide officeholder who is known by the public. This is why you saw her stress the Berkshire roots in her announcement yesterday. She might compete with Markey for Medford/Malden (where they both live) and Meehan for Lowell (she was Middlesex DA, he is a Lowell native), but none of the field has yet played west of Framingham or on the SouthCoast. In 2006, Lynch, Markey, Capuano and Coakley were all relatively unopposed – the Congressmen each tapped out at about 170,000 votes while 1.5 million Bay Staters pulled the lever for Coakley. Apples and oranges, but still instructive.

• That pesky little day job. Coakley has a big job. But few will challenge her ability to be the state’s Attorney General and also run for statewide office in Massachusetts (outside of the Massachusetts GOP). That’s a very different kettle of fish for the members of Congress. This sprint to December 8 will fall right into absolutely huge votes on health care and energy reform, a likely uptick in Congressional debate and hand-wringing over the war in Afghanistan and more. The members of Congress who run for Senate will either be out of state doing their jobs or leave themselves very vulnerable to attack for not doing the jobs they have – fair or not.

• Losses, real or imagined. While a special election like this, it seems like a no-brainer to run for current office holders. They could win the Senate and won’t lose their seats if they lose. But there are some risks for some of the field. For instance, Markey and Capuano now enjoy significant heft in House leadership. Markey is a ranking member of the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee and relatively new leader of a key subcommittee on Global Warming (a post he had to fight for internally). Capuano is part of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s unofficial inner circle. Could a losing run put them out of favor with leadership? Few in the House admit it but they all seethe at the notion that the Senate is better than the House and resent members who strive for the “Upper Branch.” Backlash is possible. And, of course, Meehan would likely have to resign as Chancellor of UMass-Lowell – not a no-brainer for him.

Coakley is rightly receiving praise these days for having the courage to jump in the race regardless of whether Joe Kennedy runs. But for Coakley, as the only candidate with statewide experience and the only Democratic woman so far showing any interest, the math is much easier - and the risks far fewer.